스포츠지표
스포츠지표 2. Laying the Foundation: Key Metrics & Terminologies
2.1. Understanding the Betting Landscape
Before diving headlong into predictive modeling, it helps to parse the basic terms:
Moneyline: Signifies how much you’d win on a $100 bet or how much you must risk to win $100. For instance:
o+150: Wager $100 to net $150 in profit.
o-150: Risk $150 to earn $100 in profit.
Point spreads: Estimate the margin of victory or defeat. Bettors care not only about who triumphs but also by how many points.
Over/Under (Totals): Focuses on the combined points (or runs, goals) of both teams, letting you bet on whether the total surpasses or falls below a set number.
Below is a brief comparison table for these core betting concepts:
Term
Example
Implication
Moneyline
+200 / -200
Bet $100 to win $200 or risk $200 to win $100
Point Spread
-7 / +7
Team must win by more than 7, or lose by fewer than 7 (or win outright)
Over/Under
47.5 points
Predict whether the total combined score exceeds or remains under 47.5
Every betting line is dynamic, influenced by injuries, weather, and the collective money flowing in on each side. Staying cognizant of these fluctuations helps inform sharper wagers and keeps your model relevant in a volatile market.
2.2. Essential Concepts: Expected Value & Closing Line Value
Two cornerstones guide the construction of profitable models: Expected Value (EV) and Closing Line Value (CLV).
1.Expected Value (EV):
oReflects the average win or loss you’d achieve if you were to place the same bet repeatedly under identical conditions. A consistently positive EV over numerous wagers suggests that your model might be capitalizing on real inefficiencies in the market.
2.Closing Line Value (CLV):
oFocuses on the final odds or spreads just before a match starts. If you lock in a bet at -110 odds and it closes at -130, you’ve “beaten” the closing line, implying that late market shifts favored your prediction.
In essence, tracking EV and CLV allows you to see if your approach stands up against the sharpest iteration of the market, ensuring that your model is truly adding value rather than stumbling into accidental wins.